How does Random Forest reduce variance mathematically?

Updated May 17, 2026

Short answer

Random Forest reduces variance by averaging multiple decorrelated high-variance decision trees.

Deep explanation

Mathematically, if each tree has variance σ² and correlation ρ between trees, the ensemble variance becomes ρσ² + (1−ρ)σ²/T. As number of trees T increases and correlation decreases, variance reduces significantly. This is the core reason Random Forest generalizes well.

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